Monday, December 17, 2012

November 2012 Charts

November 2012 Charts

The trends continue...

  • Inventory is tight. It's a great time to be a seller; not so much fun trying to buy over the last year or so.
  • Prices are rising.
  • Bank-Inventory has been declining sharply, but it still makes up over a third of the new listings each month.
  • Vacant Listings still dominate traditional listings by about a 3 to 2 margin.

Here are some charts. (my thoughts below):

Some thoughts as we head into 2013:

  • Vacancy. That 3rd chart is the key. There shouldn't be more than a few hundred vacant homes in a "normal" market. As long as the vacancy numbers are high, the market is in uncharted territory.
  • Foreclosure Buyers. How long will it take the "foreclosed families" to get back into the home-buying market? There are a couple hundred thousand families sitting on the sidelines these days, currently renting. How long will it take them to repair their credit and save up for a down payment? Will they come back en masse?
  • Interest Rates. What happens to interest rates could have a major impact on our market. The payment on a $250,000 mortgage at 3.5% is $1,123. At 6.0% (still low by historic standards), the payment rises to $1,499. A spike in interest rates could dry up demand overnight.
  • Prices. Prices today are at or near where they were at the start of "The Bubble", but interest rates are significantly lower. Are we seeing another bubble forming?

We have a lot to keep our eyes on this year. I'll continue to share what I'm seeing, as I see it.