Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Distressed Activity by Month – November 2011

THE GRAPH HAS INVERTED!  There are some significant changes to the graphs this month.  Finally!  (my thoughts below the charts)

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 - New Bank Owned Listings  - (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

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Chart 2 - New Short Sale Listings (new listings, still owned by the ‘owner’, but needing the bank to take a short payoff because the home is worth less than the mortgage balance.  The bank will need to approve the sale.)

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Chart 3 - New Bank Owned + Short Sale Listings  (a combined look at the above charts – these are the new listings where the bank is going to take a loss on the property, and the best reflection of my former Distressed Listings chart.)

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Chart 4 - New Vacant Listings  (new listings which are vacant homes.  While not all vacant listings are distressed listings, I am including them because they represent a very large percentage of the overall market, and therefore provide some measurement of Distressed.)

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Now the Sales - I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

Chart 5 - Home Sales by Type of Owner

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Chart 6 - Home Sales by Type of Occupant

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I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

Chart 1 – New Bank-Owned listings are falling off the chart.  Finally!  From over 5,000 in March, 2009, to consistently between 2,000 and 3,000 for the last year, to the last few months being under 2,000.  And now we’re approaching the 1,000 mark.  This is great news.

Chart 4 – New Vacant Listings are also trending steeply in the right direction.

Chart 5 – November was the first month in well over 3 years where there were more sales of traditional / equity owned homes than bank-owned homes!

Now, before we get too carried away and think the market has recovered, there are still some sobering numbers in the above charts:

Chart 1 – there are still more than 1,000 new foreclosures hitting the market each month.  That’s a lot of people losing their home.

Chart 4 – 3,500 new listings are vacant; that’s not the sign of a normal market.

Chart 5 – I’m willing to wager that 2/3 (or more) of the equity sellers are investors who bought foreclosures a couple/few months ago and are selling the homes today.  These aren’t the regular mom & pop families selling their home in order to go buy a larger or smaller home down the street.

Chart 6 – There are still far more vacant than occupied homes changing hands.  Again, this isn’t the sign of a market which has recovered.

Overall, we’re definitely headed in the right direction.  Fewer bank-involved listings will translate into fewer vacant listings and fewer investor buyers down the road.  This month marks a big step forward in the right direction, but there are many more steps to be taken..

Your feeling a little more optimistic today Realtor,

Chris Butterworth