Monday, November 21, 2011

Distressed Activity by Month – October 2011

I like the look of these charts!  (Best trending we’ve seen in 3 years..)

This post will have a lot of easy to read charts, and then I’ll write up a couple thoughts at the end.  I hope you enjoy it…

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 - New Bank Owned Listings  - (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

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Chart 2 - New Short Sale Listings (new listings, still owned by the ‘owner’, but needing the bank to take a short payoff because the home is worth less than the mortgage balance.  The bank will need to approve the sale.)

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Chart 3 - New Bank Owned + Short Sale Listings  (a combined look at the above charts – these are the new listings where the bank is going to take a loss on the property, and the best reflection of my former Distressed Listings chart.)

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Chart 4 - New Vacant Listings  (new listings which are vacant homes.  While not all vacant listings are distressed listings, I am including them because they represent a very large percentage of the overall market, and therefore provide some measurement of Distressed.)

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Now the Sales - I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

Chart 5 - Home Sales by Type of Owner

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Chart 6 - Home Sales by Type of Occupant

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I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

Although it’s painfully slow, the charts show we’re definitely moving in the right direction.  (especially the listing charts.)

Chart 1 shows the first time we’ve had less than 1,500 new bank-owned listings hit the market.

Chart 3 shows the 2nd time we’ve had less than 4,000 new bank-owned plus short-sale listings.

Chart 4 shows the first time we’ve had less than 4,000 new vacant listings.

And on the Sales side, Chart 5 shows the type of seller was more evenly distributed than we’ve had since I started tracking this stuff in early 2009.

So, we’re on the road to recovery.  How long the trip will take is still anyone’s guess…

Your happy to see we’re heading in the right direction Realtor,

Chris Butterworth