Sunday, October 16, 2011

Distressed Activity by Month – September 2011

Lots of information showing we’re heading in the right direction, but we’re still a long way from “recovered.”

This post will have a lot of easy to read charts, and then I’ll write up a couple thoughts at the end.  I hope you enjoy it…

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 - New Bank Owned Listings  - (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

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Chart 2 - New Short Sale Listings (new listings, still owned by the ‘owner’, but needing the bank to take a short payoff because the home is worth less than the mortgage balance.  The bank will need to approve the sale.)

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Chart 3 - New Bank Owned + Short Sale Listings  (a combined look at the above charts – these are the new listings where the bank is going to take a loss on the property, and the best reflection of my former Distressed Listings chart.)

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Chart 4 - New Vacant Listings  (new listings which are vacant homes.  While not all vacant listings are distressed listings, I am including them because they represent a very large percentage of the overall market, and therefore provide some measurement of Distressed.)

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Now the Sales - I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

Chart 5 - Home Sales by Type of Owner

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Chart 6 - Home Sales by Type of Occupant

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I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

Chart 1 shows a distinct downward trend in the number of new bank-owned listings to hit the market.  September had the fewest number of bank-owned listings since I started keeping track, and the last 2 months have both been under 2,000 units.

Chart 3 shows a similar downward trend, although not quite as drastic.  This chart includes Short Sales along with bank-owned listings.  Short sales have not decreased as much as bank-owned, but September was the first month the number of short sale & bank-owned listings was less than 4,000.

Chart 4 shows the number of vacant listings has steadily decreased over the last year, with September’s 4,113 being the lowest point on the chart.

Chart 5 shows we had almost as many traditional “equity” sales as we had bank-owned sales last month.  We had a similar closeness a couple times in 2010, but for the most part the bank-owned sales have dwarfed the traditional sales.  However, we’re still looking for our first inversion point..

Chart 6 shows us how far away we are from being in a normal market.  There were 3 times as many vacant properties changing hands as those which are occupied.

We’re still heading in the right direction, but we’ve got a long way to go.

Your watching & waiting Realtor,

Chris Butterworth