Sunday, September 25, 2011

Distressed Activity by Month – August 2011

A look at the new listing charts this month shows the trend is continuing in the right direction.  However, a look at the numbers on the charts shows we’re still a ways off from being recovered.  (same story, different month!)

This post will have a lot of easy to read charts, and then I’ll write up a couple thoughts at the end.  I hope you enjoy it…

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 - New Bank Owned Listings  - (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

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Chart 2 - New Short Sale Listings (new listings, still owned by the ‘owner’, but needing the bank to take a short payoff because the home is worth less than the mortgage balance.  The bank will need to approve the sale.)

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Chart 3 - New Bank Owned + Short Sale Listings  (a combined look at the above charts – these are the new listings where the bank is going to take a loss on the property, and the best reflection of my former Distressed Listings chart.)

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Chart 4 - New Vacant Listings  (new listings which are vacant homes.  While not all vacant listings are distressed listings, I am including them because they represent a very large percentage of the overall market, and therefore provide some measurement of Distressed.)

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Now the Sales - I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

Chart 5 - Home Sales by Type of Owner

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Chart 6 - Home Sales by Type of Occupant

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I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

A couple of pieces of good news:

On the bank-owned front, this was the first time since I began tracking this activity that we’ve had less than 2,000 new bank-owned listings. (chart 1)

Also, there were more bank-owned homes sold than listed, which continued the recent trend.

Overall, we’re still showing a large number of sales each month, which is preventing the inventory from building up and helping to keep prices from falling further.

But it’s not all good news:

There were over 4,500 new vacant listings this month.  4,500 – that’s a lot.  No way the term recovery can be considered with that many vacant homes hitting the market each month.

Short sales showed the opposite relationship from bank-owned; more short sale listings than sales.

There hasn’t been much change in the ratio of bank-owned, short sales, and traditional (equity) sales since the summer of 2009.

Again, same thing I say seemingly every month – it’s great that sales activity is so high, and we’re clearing the market of so many distressed listings each month.  But the market won’t start recovering until there are fewer distressed listings each month.

Your waiting patiently, ‘cause it’s all he can do Realtor,

Chris Butterworth