Thursday, July 7, 2011

Distressed Activity by Month – June 2011

Each month I pull these charts together, and each month I hope to see obvious trends showing fewer distressed listings hitting the market and more sales of owner-occupied homes.  Unfortunately, the trends I’m hoping for have not yet materialized…

Here are the charts showing the distressed activity by month – listings and sales – since the beginning of 2009.

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 - New Bank Owned Listings  - (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

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Chart 2 - New Short Sale Listings (new listings, still owned by the ‘owner’, but needing the bank to take a short payoff because the home is worth less than the mortgage balance.  The bank will need to approve the sale.)

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Chart 3 - New Bank Owned + Short Sale Listings  (a combined look at the above charts – these are the new listings where the bank is going to take a loss on the property, and the best reflection of my former Distressed Listings chart.)

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Chart 4 - New Vacant Listings  (new listings which are vacant homes.  While not all vacant listings are distressed listings, I am including them because they represent a very large percentage of the overall market, and therefore provide some measurement of Distressed.)

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Now the Sales - I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

Chart 5 - Home Sales by Type of Owner

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Chart 6 - Home Sales by Type of Occupant

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I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

I’d like to have an obvious, black & white answer for you, but I don’t; these charts are a bit confusing.  Sales of owner-occupied homes are up – that’s great!  But sales are up across the board – vacant homes, bank-owned homes, short sales…  It seems more likely the investor-buyers just have a bigger appetite right now.  There’s also some seasonality showing up, with repeated peaks in the summer months.

And on the listing side, we’re still adding almost 5,000 new bank-involved listings each month.  We’re certainly not heading towards a normal market at that rate.  I’m just keeping my fingers crossed that the purchase pace continues to be higher than the listing rate – as long as the new listings are getting absorbed, we’re simply buying time until the banks run out of new listings.  Hopefully that happens over the next year or two & we’ll watch the listings wind down in our charts.

Your watching & waiting Realtor,

Chris Butterworth