Monday, February 14, 2011

Distressed Activity by Month – January 2011

I’m looking at the distressed activity from January and all I can is Yuck…

This post will have a lot of easy to read charts, and then I’ll write up a couple thoughts at the end.  I hope you enjoy it..

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 - New Bank Owned Listings  - (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

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Chart 2 - New Short Sale Listings (new listings, still owned by the ‘owner’, but needing the bank to take a short payoff because the home is worth less than the mortgage balance.  The bank will need to approve the sale.)

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Chart 3 - New Bank Owned + Short Sale Listings  (a combined look at the above charts – these are the new listings where the bank is going to take a loss on the property, and the best reflection of my former Distressed Listings chart.)

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Chart 4 - New Vacant Listings  (new listings which are vacant homes.  While not all vacant listings are distressed listings, I am including them because they represent a very large percentage of the overall market, and therefore provide some measurement of Distressed.)

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Now the Sales - I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

Chart 5 - Home Sales by Type of Owner

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Chart 6 - Home Sales by Type of Occupant

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I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

These are the ugliest charts I’ve seen in a long time.  Here’s what jumps out at me:

Charts 2 & 3, Short Sales – big spike in short sale listings.  These are generally sellers who have fallen behind on their mortgage and are trying to “get out”.

Chart 4, Vacant Listings – there’s definitely not a slow-down of vacant homes hitting the market.  These are generally either bank-owned or situations where the owner has already moved on and is just letting the short sale or foreclosure process take its course.

Chart 5, Type of Seller – this was the first time in almost 2 years we’ve had less than 1,000 traditional sellers.

Chart 6, Type of Occupant – the trends of vacant vs occupied have held steady for a long time.

None of these charts matches any of the good news I’m starting to read about.  Something’s gotta give…

Your hoping to see some changes this year Realtor,

Chris Butterworth