Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Distressed Activity by Month – December 2010

December was a good month as far as distressed activity – sales were up and listings were down.  A few more months like this & we’ll be headed squarely into recovery-land.  Unfortunately, I don’t think this represents a change in the trends as much as it was just end-of-year activity.

This post will have a lot of easy to read charts, and then I’ll write up a couple thoughts at the end.  I hope you enjoy it..

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 - New Bank Owned Listings  - (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

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Chart 2 - New Short Sale Listings (new listings, still owned by the ‘owner’, but needing the bank to take a short payoff because the home is worth less than the mortgage balance.  The bank will need to approve the sale.)

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Chart 3 - New Bank Owned + Short Sale Listings  (a combined look at the above charts – these are the new listings where the bank is going to take a loss on the property, and the best reflection of my former Distressed Listings chart.)

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Chart 4 - New Vacant Listings  (new listings which are vacant homes.  While not all vacant listings are distressed listings, I am including them because they represent a very large percentage of the overall market, and therefore provide some measurement of Distressed.)

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Now the Sales - I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

Chart 5 - Home Sales by Type of Owner

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Chart 6 - Home Sales by Type of Occupant

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I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

Well, December looks like it was a good month as far as distressed activity goes – a big spike in bank-owned sales coupled with a decline in new distressed listings will help shrink inventory and is good for our market.

However, the decline in new distressed listings was probably due to the holidays more than a change in the market.  (notice the same dip in Nov-Dec last year.)

Overall, we’re still listing more than 4,000 vacant homes each month, and the distressed sales far outweigh the traditional sales…   We’re a long way from recovered.

Your hoping 2011 brings us some relief Realtor,

Chris Butterworth