Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Distressed Activity by Month - October 2010

Last month I combined my New Distressed Listings analysis with my Distressed Sales analysis, mostly because the two together show a much clearer picture than either one does by itself.  I got some positive feedback, so I’ll continue to write them up this way..

This post will have a lot of easy to read charts, and then I’ll write up a couple thoughts at the end.  I hope you enjoy it..

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 - New Bank Owned Listings  - (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

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Chart 2 - New Short Sale Listings (new listings, still owned by the ‘owner’, but needing the bank to take a short payoff because the home is worth less than the mortgage balance.  The bank will need to approve the sale.)

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Chart 3 - New Bank Owned + Short Sale Listings  (a combined look at the above charts – these are the new listings where the bank is going to take a loss on the property, and the best reflection of my former Distressed Listings chart.)

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Chart 4 - New Vacant Listings  (new listings which are vacant homes.  While not all vacant listings are distressed listings, I am including them because they represent a very large percentage of the overall market, and therefore provide some measurement of Distressed.)

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Now the Sales - I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

Chart 5 - Home Sales by Type of Owner

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Chart 6 - Home Sales by Type of Occupant

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I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

The unnerving trend I pointed out last month has continued – bank and vacant listings are up, and sales are down.  So we’ll see downward pressure on pricing from the one-two punch of increased inventory and the increased bank activity.  They’ll follow that up with the traditionally slow holiday season, and I don’t think pricing is going to gain any strength until the new year..  yuck.

Your counting how many years he’s been waiting for a recovery (2007, 2008, 2009, 2010…) and running out of fingers Realtor,

Chris Butterworth