Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Distressed Activity by Month – September 2010

This month I’m combining my New Distressed Listings analysis with my Distressed Sales analysis, mostly because the two together show a much clearer picture than either one does by itself.  This post will have a lot of easy to read charts, and then I’ll write up a couple thoughts at the end.  I hope you enjoy it..

(Click on any chart to see a larger version.)

Listings First – Here are the new distressed listings hitting the market each month going back to January 2009, broken out by different types and views.

Chart 1 - New Bank Owned Listings  - (new listings actually owned by the bank – think foreclosures and REOs.)

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Chart 2 - New Short Sale Listings (new listings, still owned by the ‘owner’, but needing the bank to take a short payoff because the home is worth less than the mortgage balance.  The bank will need to approve the sale.)

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Chart 3 - New Bank Owned + Short Sale Listings  (a combined look at the above charts – these are the new listings where the bank is going to take a loss on the property, and the best reflection of my former Distressed Listings chart.)

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Chart 4 - New Vacant Listings  (new listings which are vacant homes.  While not all vacant listings are distressed listings, I am including them because they represent a very large percentage of the overall market, and therefore provide some measurement of Distressed.)

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Now the Sales - I’ve pulled all the homes sold since 1/1/2009 for Single Family Residences in Maricopa County, broken out by who owns them and who lives in them.

Chart 5 - Home Sales by Type of Owner

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Chart 6 - Home Sales by Type of Occupant

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I am including Single Family Detached Homes listed for sale (or sold) in Maricopa County via the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.  These numbers are believed accurate but not guaranteed.

What does it all mean?

When I look at the listing trends or the sales trends individually, I don’t see much of anything to get excited about.  But when I look at them together, uh oh – me thinks we’re getting into trouble.

Notice how the new listings have ticked upward, ever so slightly, over the last 3 months?  (see Charts 1, 3, and 4.)

Now combine that with the slight down-tick in sales from charts over the last 3 months.  (Charts 5 and 6.)

Using the actual figures, we’ve had 17,268 new bank-owned and short-sale listings during the last 3 months, yet we’ve only had 9,983 bank-owned and short-sale listings close escrow during those same 3 months.  Our bank-involved inventory increased by over 7,000 listings in the 3rd quarter!

I don’t want to be a pessimist, but this is all happening as we head into what is traditionally the slowest time of the year for home sales.

That can’t be good news for the direction of the market…

Your struggling to find silver linings Realtor,

Chris Butterworth