Monday, August 23, 2010

Phoenix-area real estate coming back soon?

A client who’s also a friend emailed me through LinkedIn the other day. He said,

David: How’s the market going for you? Do you see residential real estate coming back anytime soon?

Thought our readers might be interested in my answer.

Heather: Sadly, no, I don't see it coming back anytime soon. Earlier this year I was hopeful that we'd be back on the road to normal by Fall 2010 or Spring 2011, but I'm less hopeful now.  It seems like the economic news is mostly bad, more and more people expect a double dip recession and the politicians are on hold for the summer, getting ready for a Battle Royale in November.

To top it off, Phoenix-area residential real estate often seems to be a leading indicator, and we've seen a big slowdown in the volume of residential resale homes getting sold in July. For most of 2009, about 5,500 or 6,000 resale homes sold Valleywide. March through June 2010 we averaged about 6,500 or 7,000 homes sold Valley-wide. July 2010 sales volumes were only 5,200 and August sales volumes are looking like they’ll come in at about 5,000 homes sold. But the volume of new bank owned homes hitting the market hasn’t slowed at the same rate. Same supply, less demand, simple Econ 101 says prices drop.

I'm battening down the hatches and prepping for another 3 years of sluggish creeping along the bottom, price-wise in Phoenix-area real estate.

Image ID 838145 by StockExchange user cieleke I could be totally wrong. I hope I am. But I’m battening down the hatches all the same. My new mantra is simplify, small-ify, use hand-me-downs, reduce, re-use, recycle… lather, rinse, repeat.