Monday, July 13, 2009

Phoenix and Northwest Valley home prices

Today’s local real estate market is a strange place – very difficult to figure out exactly what’s going on, whether you’re recounting first-hand experiences from out in the field, or you’re reviewing numbers & statistics on a spreadsheet.  Either way, it’s a strange time in our history.

I’m comparing our current environment to 2003 – the last time our market was considered “normal” – looking for clues or anything else that jumps out at me.

Here are some statistics I found interesting…  (the numbers first, and then some analysis)

NorthWest Valley, Including Surprise, Peoria, Glendale.  Single Family, Detached Homes only.  Sold homes.  All data provided by ARMLS and is deemed accurate but not guaranteed.

 Jun 03Jun 09Definition
Minimum46,48816,000Lowest Price Sale
Quartile 1126,50092,00025% of sales are lower than this number; 75% are higher
Median149,000135,00050% of sales are lower; 50% are higher
Quartile 3190,000187,50075% of sales are lower; 25% are higher
Maximum1,200,0001,185,000Highest Price Sale
Count9701,191Number of homes sold during period
Total $166.4 mil180.3 milTotal dollar amount of all sales during period
Avg CDOM55.8112.9Average number of days on the market
Avg $/sale171,546151,385Average Sales Price
Sold / List98.50%98.50%Sold Price as a percentage of List Price


## The upper sales prices are very similar to 2003.  Today’s median price is 10% lower, but the 3rd Quartile & Maximum Sale Price are almost identical.  This seems to mean that the upper half of the market is similar to 2003.

## The Sold Price as a percentage of List Price is Identical!!  Wow.  Couldn’t guess it’s a bad market by looking at that number..

## We sold 23% MORE homes last month than in June, 2003.  Again, that’s not the sign of a bad market.

## We’ve all read about the banks’ activity driving the market; this must be at the lower half, where the changes from 2003 are more pronounced.  The Minimum and 1st Quartile are significantly lower this year, meaning there are far more small-dollar sales happening.

## This is validated by the smaller Average Sales Price; more activity at the lower prices.  Today’s average is much closer to the median.

## From first-hand experience in the field, we know that low-priced homes in this part of the valley are selling quickly – many times with multiple offers above List Price on the first weekend.

## If the Average time on the Market is approx. 4 months, and we know the low-priced homes are selling quickly, then the more expensive homes must be sitting on the market for much longer.  This means the upper price ranges are NOT the same as they were in 2003.

Hmmm.  I guess the statistics back up what we thought after all..   Lots of activity, fast-moving market at the lower prices, difficult for sellers at the higher price ranges…

Your double checking his math Realtor,

Chris Butterworth