Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Sunday Stats (on Tuesday)

Sorry gang, stats are late this week. The level of buyer interest in buying has reached near-frenzy in some price bands, and ThePhoenixAgents team is kept hopping day to day.


Click the charts to enlarge; use browser’s back button to return to the post. Note: this chart includes all areas covered by the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS), and includes detached homes, patiohomes, townhomes,  condos, multifamily housing, loft housing. It excludes only manufactured and mobile homes.



6-16-2009 whole MLS with history

The chart above shows the entire MLS with history going back to last October. The “Months’ Inventory” and “Sold In Past 30 Days” are the interesting numbers in this chart. As Chris noted in his recent post, sales volume is waaaaay up. We’re selling as many homes per month now as we did in the peak of the boom-boom years. Of course as everyone knows, prices are way off those boom-boom era highs. But you can’t have 40% appreciation per year forever or pretty soon we’re all living in cardboard boxes because it’s all we can afford.



6-16-2009 whole MLS (Note: this chart includes all areas covered by the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS), and includes detached homes, patiohomes, townhomes,  condos, multifamily housing, loft housing. It excludes only manufactured and mobile homes.)

This chart (above) breaks down the entire MLS into the ZIP codes we prominently cover here at ThePhoenixAgents.com

6-16-2009 by price band

Finally, the chart above shows that all the sales volume is happening in the lower price ranges. (It includes only single family, detached houses. It excludes condos, patiohomes, townhomes, multifamily housing, and manufactured/mobile homes).


I began charting this data because I’ve got a theory that the “recovery” we’ve all been hoping for has already begun in the sub-$75,000 price band and will creep up the price bands.


Here’s my theory, for what it’s worth: Investors will buy the cheapest properties they can find that cash-flow. When that price band is sold out, the investors will move up to the next price band and buy everything they can get to cash flow in that band. Lather, rinse, repeat until we’re back to a normal market.


Of course at some price point the properties stop cash-flowing as rental properties. I guess that might be around $175,000 to $225,000, depending on the investor’s cash on hand, the rents in the area, etc.


It’s anybody’s guess where the buyer demand comes from at prices above that level. Maybe that’s when the “pent up buyer demand” that some folks talk about steps in.