Sunday, April 26, 2009

Sunday Stats for April 25, 2009

Here’s the chart for this week:

4-26-2009 6-44-58 PM (click to enlarge; use browser’s back button to return)

The gray bands are new this week. They’re to highlight ZIP codes where the real estate market is balanced. Most folks in the biz generally agree that 6 months’ inventory is a “balanced” market. What this means is that if sales continued at the current pace and no additional homes were listed for sale, it would take 6 months for all the currently for-sale homes to sell.

In a balanced market, neither buyers or sellers have the upper hand in negotiating over price and terms. Of course you could still have a seller who was desperate to sell and gave that information out, giving buyers the upper hand on that particular home. But that would be kind of foolish, and anyway I’m talking generalities.

So there’s a TON o’ green this week and where there isn’t green there’s mostly gray. So that’s great news: most of the North Valley or Northwest Valley is improving or in recovery.

But that’s not the whole story. Here’s the rest of the story:

85379 distress maps, 4 26 09 (all the slick charts in this post are courtesy of The Cromford Report . I couldn't make anything that cool.  Click to enlarge; use browser’s back button to return)

That’s a chart of the amount of bank-owned sales in Surprise ZIP 85379. That big swath of red on the right? Those are bank owned sales. Seventy-eight percent of sales in Surprise in the past few weeks were bank owned.

That big ocean of light blue on the left? Those are 52% of the homes currently for sale that are in some stage of foreclosure. Presumably if they don't sell before the foreclosure auction happens, they'll be back on the market shortly, as bank owned homes. And the cycle begins again. Despite my recent blog pledge of puppies and sunshine, I see the wisdom of my partner's post that we're not out of the woods yet.

Here’s the charts for ZIPs 85306, 85308, and 85310:

4 26 09, 85306 distress map

4 26 09, 85308 distress maps

4 26 09, 85310 distress maps

Essentially, the ZIPs that are recovering the quickest are those with the most foreclosures. Doesn’t really surprise, but I hoped it would be interesting to see it in black and white. Or red and blue.