Thursday, March 12, 2009

Update to 2002 Pricing Comparison

I published a chart a couple of days ago showing average home prices in the MLS had fallen to 2002 levels.  I've had a few people ask for more information about the numbers, so I thought I'd publish an update.

Here is a table showing the average sales price for each quarter from January, 2000 through February, 2009.  I'm also including the year-over-year appreciation rate; the percentage change from the same quarter in the previous year.

Numbers crunchers out there - read on, and enjoy...

(all data was pulled from the MLS system and is assumed to be accurate but not guaranteed.)

Average Sales Price and Year-Over-Year Appreciation Rate by Quarter

QuarterAvg Sales PriceAnnual Appreciation
2000 Q1170,042 
2000 Q2176,517 
2000 Q3173,179 
2000 Q4173,508 
2001 Q1174,9312.8%
2001 Q2176,5840.0%
2001 Q3174,6300.8%
2001 Q4174,3700.5%
2002 Q1178,6212.1%
2002 Q2186,0895.1%
2002 Q3184,0245.1%
2002 Q4186,1286.3%
2003 Q1189,6755.8%
2003 Q2198,1196.1%
2003 Q3200,9808.4%
2003 Q4205,5349.4%
2004 Q1212,82410.9%
2004 Q2223,47011.3%
2004 Q3226,74311.4%
2004 Q4239,37314.1%
2005 Q1265,75419.9%
2005 Q2307,78227.4%
2005 Q3322,13329.6%
2005 Q4330,13427.5%
2006 Q1341,54522.2%
2006 Q2349,67112.0%
2006 Q3336,8944.4%
2006 Q4340,6903.1%
2007 Q1350,8332.6%
2007 Q2355,6701.7%
2007 Q3343,9062.0%
2007 Q4333,069(2.3%)
2008 Q1314,045(11.7%)
2008 Q2285,238(24.7%)
2008 Q3244,984(40.4%)
2008 Q4211,940(57.2%)
2009 Q1178,825(75.6%)


I've always maintained that the market "turned" in October, 2005.  My listings from September that year sold very quickly (although not on their first day on the market), and my listings from October felt a great relief when they (eventually) sold.  Even though the pricing numbers show prices continued to rise well into 2007, the appreciation rates agree with my assessment of 4th quarter 2005 being the beginning of the end...

Your stats guy Realtor,

Chris Butterworth