Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Sunday Stats, A Little Late

Readers who watch my Sunday Stats feature know that I sometimes run a day late and a dollar short with my posts. Sometimes Sunday Stats shows up on Monday. This week it's Tuesday. Sunday was Superbowl and Monday was food poisoning. Kidding. (Not really)

To make up for being two whole days short this week, I'm also posting month end numbers for January, and adding a slew of new ZIP codes to my stats tracker. Off we go. . .

sold-ytd-since-2000The above mini-chart show properties sold in metro Phoenix region, per year, since year 2000.  Strictly from a sales volume perspective, 2008 wasn't so bad.

Now, for our clients and readers who are engineers, analysts or other varieties of data whore, here are the full stats chart from July 2008 through end-of-month, January 2009:


The "Months of Inventory" number is the crucial factor in determining how close we are to "normal." Most forecasters, Realtors and economists say a normal real estate market has about 6 months' of inventory for sale. For the first 6 weeks of 2009, we're averaging 4,660 properties sold in a rolling 30-day period. That's pretty close to normal. What's not normal is the number of homes for sale. At 4,660 sold per 30 days, we should be carrying no more than 28,000 homes for sale (4,660 x 6 = 27,961).

With 51,281 properties for sale today, we're nearly double the inventory we should have for sale, given our current pace of sales. As so many others have said, metro Phoenix has a ways to go before we burn through all our excess inventory. Ridding ourselves of excess inventory is the only way to get back to normal. That is, unless people start buying twice as many homes per month. Given the credit and jobs market we're in, that's unlikely <sarcasm>.

ZIP Codes Breakdown

Finally, below is the breakdown of homes for sale, pending and sold by ZIP code.  Beginning this week, I'm adding a bunch of new ZIP codes to my weekly stats tracker. That's to reflect the new partnership with Chris Butterworth, formerly my mentor.

Between us, Chris and I now handle an immense swathe of the metro Phoenix real estate market. These are the ZIP codes where we feel most 'at home'.  These areas represent our combined 'backyards' where we've grown up, spent time shopping, working, dining and/or raising families.

But they're not the only ZIP codes we'll work in, by any means. Chris is currently working with an investor in Tempe and I'm helping buyers find The One in Ahwatukee.

On to the stats. As always, red means a move away from a balanced/normal market; green means the stat moved towards balance.


Finally, for the curious and the out of town readers, here's a snap of the ZIP code map I use daily. It shows most of the areas that we at The Phoenix Agents cover.


Here's a link to the easiest to use free ZIP code map that I've found oline. It includes the updated ZIP codes assigned to the metro Phoenix area in summer 2007. The same data is presented on this website too. Just don't click on any of the side advertising links on either one of these! They're total crapola.