Saturday, November 1, 2008

October Month-End Stats

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Here are the end of month October numbers. I posted on the 24th of October that the mid-month numbers looked dismal (see bright yellow highlights: 5.94% sold in past 30 days, which was down over 50% from the mid-September number).

Then, I blamed it on the bad economic news - bailout after bailout after bailout - and on the waning days of the Presidential campaigns making people hold their breath.

Today, the numbers don't look so awful - 9.54% sold in past 30 days, versus 11.16% sold in past 30 days back in mid-September.

Still, the wild stock market swings and accompanying news of layoffs, continued talk of recession and even the specter of deflation have taken a toll on the metro Phoenix market. Buyer demand dropped 15% since mid-September, while the inventory of homes for sale continues to rise, edging up 4% since September 22.

It's almost certain that the number of homes for sale will continue increasing, since the number of foreclosure notices were up 71% in September, year-over-year. Most of those homes will end up for sale, either as short sales or bank owned properties.

In the world of simple economics, more stuff for sale and fewer buyers buying equals prices going down. Whether the continue price declines fuel more bargain hunters to buy Phoenix real estate is something only time can tell.

I'll be back next month with more numbers. Mid-month if the stats warrant.