Thursday, October 30, 2008

Peoria MLS - fun with numbers

I pulled some numbers from the MLS the other night, and I've been struggling with how to present them to you.  It's pretty straight forward information, and it tells me a lot about what's going on.  But it's a lot of data and analysis...  In the end I decided to give it to you straight.  First I'll share the numbers with you, plain and simple.  Then I'll slice & dice them to show you what they mean to me.  Here we go:


Active Listings in Peoria (SFR Only)

 All Active ListingsNo Bank InvolvedBank REOShort Sale
0 - $200k564284169111
$200k - $350k6644809688
$350k - $500k2271891919
$500k - $1mil14012848


Sold Homes in Peoria (30 days ending 10/24/08)

 All Sold HomesNo Bank InvolvedBank REOShort Sale
0 - $200k7929428
$200k - $350k8853305
$350k - $500k181143
$500k - $1mil6402


So what does this tell us?  Let's replace the numbers in the tables with some calculations..


Percentage of Active Listings in Peoria

 All Active ListingsNo Bank InvolvedBank REOShort Sale
0 - $200k100%50%30%20%
$200k - $350k100%72%15%13%
$350k - $500k100%84%8%8%
$500k - $1mil100%91%3%6%


Percentage of Sold Homes in Peoria

 All Sold HomesNo Bank InvolvedBank REOShort Sale
0 - $200k100%37%53%10%
$200k - $350k100%60%34%6%
$350k - $500k100%61%22%17%
$500k - $1mil100%67%0%33%


What do these percentages tell us?

  • Bank-involved homes accounted for 49% of all sales.

  • The banks' activity is highest at the lower end of the price range, accounting for 50% of all listings and 63% of all sales.

  • Bank-owned properties drove sales; even though they only represented 18% of all listings, the accounted for 40% of all sales.  The numbers skew even higher at the lower price ranges.

  • Short Sales fared much better at the higher price ranges, accounting for 17% and 33% of the sales while only representing 8% and 6% of the listings.  However, short sales were dismal at the lower price ranges.  Does this mean the bank is more likely to listen to reason & common sense when they have a lot of money on the line?

  • Traditional sellers are struggling to compete with the banks.  The percentage of Active Listings is higher than the percentage of Sold Homes across all price ranges.

Now let's take a look at Months' Inventory.


Months' Inventory for Peoria

 All HomesNo Bank InvolvedBank REOShort Sale
0 - $200k7.
$200k - $350k7.
$350k - $500k12.617.24.86.3
$500k - $1mil23.332.0infinite4.0


These numbers show us at a glance how the market is faring.  Remember, the general rule of thumb is 6 Months' Inventory is considered a balanced market - more inventory favors the buyers, less inventory favors the sellers.

  • The market is hoppin' for Bank REO property, with 3-4 months' inventory across most price ranges.

  • The market for Short Sale listings is much better at the higher price ranges.  However, you'll need a lot of luck at the lower price ranges, since short sales are under the gun to beat out a foreclosure, and the bank isn't going to wait 14-17 months for you to find a buyer!

  • Again, traditional sellers are being clobbered by the banks at the lower price ranges and by the short sellers at the higher price ranges.

  • Our overall number of 8.4 is worse than it was 2 months ago.

I hope you found this interesting and informative.  I'd love to hear your feedback about the format of this post (using a few tables rather than a dozen graphs)..

Your patiently waiting for normal Realtor,

Chris Butterworth