Thursday, October 30, 2008

Peoria MLS - fun with numbers

I pulled some numbers from the MLS the other night, and I've been struggling with how to present them to you.  It's pretty straight forward information, and it tells me a lot about what's going on.  But it's a lot of data and analysis...  In the end I decided to give it to you straight.  First I'll share the numbers with you, plain and simple.  Then I'll slice & dice them to show you what they mean to me.  Here we go:

 

Active Listings in Peoria (SFR Only)












































 All Active ListingsNo Bank InvolvedBank REOShort Sale
0 - $200k564284169111
$200k - $350k6644809688
$350k - $500k2271891919
$500k - $1mil14012848
Total1,5951,081288226

 

Sold Homes in Peoria (30 days ending 10/24/08)












































 All Sold HomesNo Bank InvolvedBank REOShort Sale
0 - $200k7929428
$200k - $350k8853305
$350k - $500k181143
$500k - $1mil6402
Total191977618

 

So what does this tell us?  Let's replace the numbers in the tables with some calculations..

 

Percentage of Active Listings in Peoria












































 All Active ListingsNo Bank InvolvedBank REOShort Sale
0 - $200k100%50%30%20%
$200k - $350k100%72%15%13%
$350k - $500k100%84%8%8%
$500k - $1mil100%91%3%6%
Total100%68%18%14%

 

Percentage of Sold Homes in Peoria












































 All Sold HomesNo Bank InvolvedBank REOShort Sale
0 - $200k100%37%53%10%
$200k - $350k100%60%34%6%
$350k - $500k100%61%22%17%
$500k - $1mil100%67%0%33%
Total100%51%40%9%

 

What do these percentages tell us?

  • Bank-involved homes accounted for 49% of all sales.

  • The banks' activity is highest at the lower end of the price range, accounting for 50% of all listings and 63% of all sales.

  • Bank-owned properties drove sales; even though they only represented 18% of all listings, the accounted for 40% of all sales.  The numbers skew even higher at the lower price ranges.

  • Short Sales fared much better at the higher price ranges, accounting for 17% and 33% of the sales while only representing 8% and 6% of the listings.  However, short sales were dismal at the lower price ranges.  Does this mean the bank is more likely to listen to reason & common sense when they have a lot of money on the line?

  • Traditional sellers are struggling to compete with the banks.  The percentage of Active Listings is higher than the percentage of Sold Homes across all price ranges.


Now let's take a look at Months' Inventory.

 

Months' Inventory for Peoria












































 All HomesNo Bank InvolvedBank REOShort Sale
0 - $200k7.19.84.013.9
$200k - $350k7.69.13.217.6
$350k - $500k12.617.24.86.3
$500k - $1mil23.332.0infinite4.0
Total8.411.13.812.6

 

These numbers show us at a glance how the market is faring.  Remember, the general rule of thumb is 6 Months' Inventory is considered a balanced market - more inventory favors the buyers, less inventory favors the sellers.

  • The market is hoppin' for Bank REO property, with 3-4 months' inventory across most price ranges.

  • The market for Short Sale listings is much better at the higher price ranges.  However, you'll need a lot of luck at the lower price ranges, since short sales are under the gun to beat out a foreclosure, and the bank isn't going to wait 14-17 months for you to find a buyer!

  • Again, traditional sellers are being clobbered by the banks at the lower price ranges and by the short sellers at the higher price ranges.

  • Our overall number of 8.4 is worse than it was 2 months ago.


I hope you found this interesting and informative.  I'd love to hear your feedback about the format of this post (using a few tables rather than a dozen graphs)..

Your patiently waiting for normal Realtor,

Chris Butterworth