Monday, September 15, 2008

Sunday Stats

Sunday Stats are a day late this week. Sorry 'bout that. I was under the weather.

Lots of red this week.

I looked back one month (below) and found that our numbers have actually gotten worse in that time interval. Interesting. Only time will tell if this week's wash of red is a fluke or a trend.



This is the chart approximately 1 month ago.

This chart tracks the entire MLS (not specific ZIPs like the two charts above) and goes back to October 2007. This is "the big picture", which shows that while our overall inventory of homes for sale hasn't dropped significantly, we're selling inventory at a steadily increasing rate.

Most experts and forecasters agree that a 6 month inventory supply is about average. That means that if no additional homes were listed for sale, and home sales continued at the same pace, it would take 6 months to sell every single home for sale.

As you can see from The Big Picture chart, we've spent the last quarter of 2007 and all of 2008 to date approaching that magic number. How much longer will it take? That's anyone's guess, and lots of folks have guesses they're tossing into the ring. My take? There are a lot more foreclosure properties yet to hit the market. With many 3/1 ARM loans adjusting in summer 2008, I expect the largest bump of foreclosure properties is yet to come. We'll probably continue selling that excess inventory, because the investor class is back in the marketplace. (Anecdotally - I've got about a half dozen buyers I'm working with right now., some want to buy now and some want to buy "in the next few months." Only 1 is not an investor.)

My best guess (and it IS just a guess, nobody can predict the future) is that we'll stall at 9 months inventory for the rest of this year, and things will break loose in a noticeable way next spring after the presidential election and Inaguration.