Monday, May 5, 2008

Surprise Market Activity

The numbers are painting a picture that's hard to ignore right now. I reviewed data from the City of Surprise, Single Family Residences, over the last 6 months, and found 3 trendlines you'll be happy to see. (please click on each chart to see a larger image).

The number of homes Actively for sale has decreased by about 22% over the last 6 months. Less homes on the market means less homes for buyers to choose from, which means buyers are more likely to settle on a particular home and make a stronger offer.
The number of homes Sold within the last 30 days has been increasing sharply over the last couple of months. This has helped to clear some of the inventory from the market.
Months' Inventory – this is the big one. Most rule-of-thumb estimates say that if the Month's Inventory, or Absorption Rate, is below 6 months, then you'll have a balanced market. Today we're sitting at 6.7 months, down from 18.9 months last November.

While all of these graphs look terrific, I'm not sure they tell the whole story. Yes, we're headed in the right direction. And yes, the worst is probably behind us. But they don't take into account which price ranges are selling the fastest. Nor do they address the number of properties with a bank's involvement being a disproportionate percentage of those that are selling. I'll put together some information to show what I'm talking about in future posts.

Overall, the numbers are looking better, and the activity out there "feels" better as well. But I don't think we're going to find a balanced market until we work our way through the majority of the bank-involved listings.

Your doesn't think we're out of the woods yet Realtor,

Chris Butterworth

[tags] Surprise, Market Activity [/tags]