Monday, April 28, 2008

West Valley MLS Statistics

One of the things I enjoy doing is pulling data from our MLS system, then slicing & dicing it until the statistics tell me a story that makes sense. (yes, I already know I'm sick.) Yesterday I pulled the last two year's worth of data for properties which had sold, and took a look at the:

Sold Price as a Percentage of List Price

I pulled sales history for the western suburbs: Avondale, Buckeye, Glendale, Goodyear, Litchfield Park, Peoria, and Surprise. Here's the results (click the table to see an enlarged version.)  update:  PLEASE click the table, as I can't get it to format very well...


Here's what jumps out at me:

  • The trend is downward, but it's not horrible. Since we're looking at Sold homes (not Canceled or Expired Listings), this means that, in general, the realistically priced homes are selling. Rather than make an offer at 80% of an overpriced home, a buyer will simply make a fair offer on a lower-priced home.

  • The worst number on the page is from this quarter in Goodyear (only the first 2 weeks of April, though): 94.5%. This means that a home asking $250,000 is getting an offer of $236,250. That's not too bad, all things considered.

  • On the other hand, in Buckeye, the average from this quarter is 98.8%. That same $250,000 home will get an offer of $247,000. That's pretty good in any market, and outstanding given today's market.

  • This further deepens my belief about how hard it is to pick up a property for cents on the dollar. Most properties that are going to sell are priced fairly, regardless of their condition or ownership. And the properties which are significantly overpriced... in my opinion it's uncommon to get an ultra-low offer accepted, especially from unrealistic sellers.

Your wading through the numbers Realtor,

Chris Butterworth

[tags] statistics, Avondale, Buckeye, Glendale, Goodyear, Litchfield Park, Peoria, Surprise [/tags]