Thursday, April 17, 2008

Pending Sales – What’s On The Horizon – Update #2

As I noticed and discussed in my two previous posts regarding Pending Sales, we are continuing to see a steady increase in the number of properties in "Pending" status, and have begun to see an increase in the "Sales" numbers as well. This is great news. Here are the updated charts showing the latest weeks' data. I removed the month of January from these latest charts to provide for an easier to read chart. It was starting to get a bit cramped. So if you want to see January's numbers you can review my previous posts.

Inventory levels still remain high with just under 56,000 units in ARMLS (Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service) as a whole, and just under 40,000 single family detached homes in Maricopa County. For the market to have any kind of stability, these numbers need to come way down. The main indicator that, even though the Pending and Sales numbers are increasing, we are still in an unbalanced market is that the price per square foot of the sold units is still decreasing. Just since January of this year, we've gone from an average price per square foot for single family detached homes sold in Maricopa County of about $160/sq ft to about $150/sq ft this past week.

One contributing factor to the decline in price per square foot is the Foreclosure inventory that's being sold at a huge discount. Just to give you an idea, when I pulled the data on Monday, pulling the previous 30 days worth of solds, 25% of the homes sold during that time period were lender owned (or at least categorized that way in our database). Those homes sold for an average of $108.33/sq ft. Those not categorized as lender owned sold for an average of $163.09/sq ft. How's that for dragging down the averages?!?!?

Keep in mind that these numbers are averages and Maricopa County is a hugely diverse area with some areas seeing better numbers and others that are seeing worse. If you'd like to see some specific numbers in your particular area, just let me know. I'd be happy to show you what the numbers look like.

*All information is provided by the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service and believed to be accurate, but not guaranteed.

-Steve Nicks

[tags] market analysis, phoenix real estate market, MLS data, desert ridge real estate [/tags]