Saturday, April 12, 2008

Market Improving - Anecdotal Evidence

I haven't written much lately. It's because I'm working 13 hour days with buyers and sellers crawling out of the woodwork it seems. So, a short post about the anecdotal evidence I've got that says the metro Phoenix real estate market is improving.

  • I've got 4 new listings in 2 weeks, all priced aggressively to move within 30 days

  • I've also got 3 new buyers, money in hand, FICO score safely in the mid- to high-700's, ready to buy this month

  • My A/C guy is busier than he can keep up with, with new work based on home inspection findings

  • His friend who does truss work for area builders, says he's busy again after a 1-1/2 year lull

  • A friend of mine who works for Pulte says their sales office is slammed; she's working Saturdays again

  • We have 55,598 active listings in the Arizona Regional MLS which is higher than I've seen since I started tracking in Oct 2007 (this is all property type, Active only, not AWC)

  • 6,626 properties are "pending" today, which is 11.84% of the Active inventory (up from 10.00% on March 12, and a meager 6.06% on January 6)

  • 4,589 properties have sold in the past 30 days, which means we've got 12.19 months of inventory on the market (down from 15.48 on March 12 and a dismal 19.30 last November)

So what does it all mean? It seems we're getting our usual spring inventory increase. With an already bloated market full of too many under-improved and over-priced houses, this should be bad. But the good news it we seem to be selling it. Nobody would claim a 12 months' supply of housing for sale is a good market, but it's a definite improvement over where we've been.

Have we turned the corner? My gut says yes, but I want another month or two of watching the "months supply" number drop before I'll change my market call from Hold to Buy.