Saturday, January 19, 2008

2007 Year End Analysis – Part 2 of ?

So I spent some more time analyzing the data from 2007 and comparing it to the previous 8 years of data that I have available to me. In my last 2007 Year End Analysis post I took a look at the total number of sales. That certainly tells one facet of the story. I also wanted to look at prices. Without even looking at any numbers at all, I'm sure you'd be able to guess that prices have decreased over the past year. But by how much? And how did the prices from this past year compare to the years prior? In other words, just how bad did it get this past year?

I took all of the homes sold through the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) as well as just the single family detached homes in Maricopa County and calculated the price per square foot. Here is what I found.

As you can see the, beginning in 2004 prices per square foot began to increase in large increments. And as you would have suspected the prices have begun to decrease. But as bad as you may think it has gotten, the price decrease through 2007 was fairly minimal relatively speaking. I'm predicting the prices will decrease again this year. By how much? That I don't know and can't reasonably venture a guess. I think one of the most important factors in the equation is going to be the foreclosure market. When these homes come on the market at 60% - 70% of what could be reasonably determined to be the market value, it makes a typical seller (i.e. owner occupant) think long and hard about whether they really want to sell their home. If they do, they must adjust their price very aggressively, or take the home off the market and sell the home at a later date. Obviously some areas of the valley are much more affected by this scenario (Surprise, Goodyear, Avondale) than others, but on a grand scale you can see the effect in the numbers above.

I'll continue to post more 2007 Year End Analysis posts as I can put the data together. If you would like me to pull some more specific data based on where you live or where you might like to live, please send me an email and I'll be happy to pull the data for you. Again, without the proper information, it's very difficult to make prudent decisions.

*All information provided by Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service believed to be accurate but not guaranteed.

-Steve Nicks

[tags] Market Analysis, Phoenix Real Estate Market, MLS Data, Desert Ridge Real Estate Market [/tags]