Friday, December 7, 2007

My Weekly Phoenix Real Estate Market Data Analysis

So this past Monday I spent my weekly hour or so pulling, entering and analyzing the data that I track from the MLS. I haven't touched on inventory and sales levels for quite some time, and of course, both Chris and I will be taking a look at the year end numbers at some point in January and will relay to you what it is that we see and what we can predict going forward; however, with the unpredictability of this market, it's almost impossible to nail down. But I wanted to touch on one thing in particular this week. It's the sharp decline in inventory that happens at the end of just about every year and into the first of the following year. Last year in the period beginning November 1 through the first week of January, the inventory level dropped by about 10.5%. We went from 46,979 available units to 42,598. So far this year in the same period we've only dropped by about 2.5%. Going from 57,796 available units to 56,367.

Obviously we know why this happens almost every year. Many people that have already had their homes on the market, decide to pull it off for the holiday months (November & December), and then normally go back on the market in February, thus giving them their 90 days off the market and a clean slate with Days On Market counter in the MLS. And those that are still trying to decide whether or not to move put the decision on hold while they deal with all that the holidays have to offer, knowing that sales activity also drops significantly during those months. It would be nice however, if the inventory levels this year experience a more significant drop than the present 2.5% or it won't be long before we break the 60,000 available unit mark.

I'll be keeping a close eye on things as they happen.

-Steve Nicks

[tags] MLS Inventory, Inventory Levels, Desert Ridge real estate, Phoenix real estate [/tags]