Friday, September 7, 2007

Today's Job Growth Numbers Depressing

For the first time in 4 years, the US economy actually lost jobs. For any sadists (or insomniacs) reading this blog, you can click here for the raw data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Scintillating reading!

This is depressing in and of itself, not least of all for the 4,000 people who lost those jobs.

I'm getting increasingly pessimistic about the impact the current housing/mortgage upset is having on the broader economy.  I think some of the Big Wig national economic forecasters are underestimating the impact a slow housing market and credit crunch worries will have on the US and world economies.

I'm no statistician, so all I've got is warm and fuzzy math & gut feelings to lay out here. I think it could get ugly. Really ugly. I've not lived through a recession as an adult, so maybe I'm being a little paranoid.

But......

I think the frantic soundbites in the national media telling Papa & Mama Couch Surfer that their house is worth less, their jobs are in jeopardy, the war in Iraq isn't getting better, and the Presidential election is shaping up to be a slug fest between about 117 different no-names...... All that's likely to put Middle America on the sidelines.

They'll stop buying little luxuries. Postpone vacations. Buy at WalMart instead of a department store. Drive an extra half-block to save 5 cents on gas.  And they'll most certainly stop thinking about moving anytime soon. It's just human nature to sit on the deck when the pool water's clouded with mud.

The Metro Phoenix housing market is pretty clouded w/ mud right now. Not to mention For Sale signs and foreclosure notices. I'm hunkering down for a long haul outta this slump.