There's an old saying about statistics – torture the numbers long enough and you'll get them to tell you anything you want to hear! And that seems to be more true than ever with today's analysis. A quick look at the charts below might give you an impression that's inconsistent with everything else we've been seeing. That's why I like to look at the same sets of numbers over time, and why I like to look at the same data from different angles. Any one particular day (or data point) might be telling you exactly what you want to hear, but when you look at a series of data points you'll find the truth.
Here's what I'm seeing when I pull data from the last six months:
What I find most interesting is that these numbers don't look too bad, at least at the lower end of the pricing scale. And 5 of the 6 price points have actually improved since last month's graphs. But this seems to be in direct contrast with the weekly numbers that I pull; the last couple of months have seen more homes go on the market than go into escrow in 6 out of 8 weeks. Does that mean the homes going into escrow aren't closing? Or does it mean that the six-month time frame is taking longer to show the results than the more immediate, weekly snapshots?
It's interesting food for thought, and I'll continue to watch the trends develop...
- Chris Butterworth
[tags] MLS statistics, market analysis [/tags]