We've all seen the mind-boggling amounts of new construction around the Valley over the last couple of years, and I think we've also all seen the after-effects this year in one form or another. Surprise is one of the communities on the "edge of town" - it's a great place, but I think the number of new homes built over the last couple of years exceeds the demand of people moving there; it's one of the slowest markets for sellers of existing homes right now.
Either someone knows something they're not telling the rest of us, or they're just taking a long-term view of what Surprise is going to be in the next 5 years or more, but the builders aren't slowing down. AZCentral.com reported today about a new, 444-unit condo complex which is just getting ready to break ground.
Here's a link to the article.
Here's a link to view it in PDF format.
This is another example which leads me to believe we're in a short-term, over-supply / market-correction, but the long term prognosis for the Phoenix area is still very strong.